Keeping an eye on it
Offshore low, prolonged NE wind, coastal flooding Wed-Thu
Coastal flood, NE wind, surf
South Shore Long Island, NYC harbor edges, East End
Wed Oct 21, 12:00 AM to Fri Oct 23, 12:00 PM
Forecast
What to watch 1 to watch
My 7-day forecast
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Tomorrow
High 60° Low 43°
No rain, gusts to 23 mph
Sunny and cool, a light breeze building near the coast.
From Alex · Written this evening
National Weather Service
High 61° · Low 48° · Rain chance 0%
Sunny
Monday. Sunny. High near 61, with temperatures falling to around 59 in the afternoon. Northeast wind 6 to 12 mph.
Monday Night. Partly cloudy. Low around 48, with temperatures rising to around 50 overnight. North wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.
The models
8 models · highs 58–62° · lows 42–48° · they agree
Model High Low Rain Gust HRRR 59° 43° No rain 22 mph NAM 58° 48° No rain 28 mph GFS 59° 43° No rain 22 mph ECMWF 60° 42° No rain 20 mph ECMWF AI 61° 47° No rain — ICON 60° 42° No rain 24 mph GEM 62° 42° No rain 21 mph NBM 61° 45° No rain 18 mph My desk call
High 60°, low 44° · No rain · Gusts to 15-22 mph
Same as the NWS
How this differs from the NWS: Models and NWS both dry.
If it goes wrong: None of note.
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Tuesday
High 65° Low 50°
No rain, gusts to 37 mph
Dry and breezy from the northeast. Gustiest on the East End.
From Alex · Written this evening
National Weather Service
High 64° · Low 47° · Rain chance 1%
Mostly Cloudy
Tuesday. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 64. North wind around 16 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.
Tuesday Night. Mostly clear, with a low around 47. Northeast wind 13 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.
The models
8 models · highs 60–66° · lows 48–52° · some spread
Model High Low Rain Gust HRRR 63° 49° No rain 40 mph NAM 60° 51° No rain 44 mph GFS 65° 49° No rain 40 mph ECMWF 64° 49° No rain 26 mph ECMWF AI 65° 52° No rain — ICON 66° 48° No rain 30 mph GEM 64° 52° No rain 40 mph NBM 65° 50° No rain 26 mph My desk call
High 63°, low 50° · No rain · Gusts to 25-35 mph
Same as the NWS
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Wednesday
High 58° Low 48°
No rain, gusts to 29 mph
Dry and breezy. Minor tidal flooding possible on the South Shore.
From Alex · Written this evening
3° warmer than NWS
National Weather Service
High 60° · Low 44° · Rain chance 9%
Mostly Sunny
Wednesday. Mostly sunny, with a high near 60.
Wednesday Night. A slight chance of rain showers after 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 44.
The models
6 models · highs 56–60° · lows 46–52° · some spread
Model High Low Rain Gust GFS 58° 49° No rain 30 mph ECMWF 56° 46° No rain 27 mph ECMWF AI 58° 52° 0.28 in — ICON 59° 48° No rain 34 mph GEM 58° 46° No rain 25 mph NBM 60° 48° No rain 28 mph My desk call
High 58°, low 48° · No rain · Gusts to 25-35 mph
Same as the NWS
How this differs from the NWS: OKX also low confidence on the offshore low.
If it goes wrong: Light showers East End if the offshore low tracks closer.
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Thursday
High 63° Low 47°
No rain, gusts to 29 mph
Mostly dry and breezy. A stray shower is possible on the East End.
From Alex · Written this evening
National Weather Service
High 64° · Low 47° · Rain chance 15%
Slight Chance Rain Showers then Mostly Sunny
Thursday. A slight chance of rain showers before 8am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 64.
Thursday Night. Mostly clear, with a low around 47.
The models
6 models · highs 59–66° · lows 43–51° · some spread
Model High Low Rain Gust GFS 66° 49° No rain 32 mph ECMWF 63° 43° No rain 28 mph ECMWF AI 62° 51° 0.21 in — ICON 64° 49° No rain 33 mph GEM 59° 47° No rain 21 mph NBM 64° 46° No rain 23 mph My desk call
High 61°, low 48° · Trace of rain · Gusts to 20-30 mph
Same as the NWS
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Friday
High 56° Low 45°
No rain, gusts to 26 mph
Dry, cooler and calmer.
From Alex · Written this evening
3° cooler than NWS
National Weather Service
High 59° · Low 43° · Rain chance 3%
Sunny
Friday. Sunny, with a high near 59.
Friday Night. Mostly clear, with a low around 43.
The models
6 models · highs 52–60° · lows 42–51° · some spread
Model High Low Rain Gust GFS 58° 51° No rain 28 mph ECMWF 52° 42° No rain 28 mph ECMWF AI 56° 49° No rain — ICON 55° 42° No rain 27 mph GEM 56° 44° No rain 20 mph NBM 60° 48° No rain 22 mph My desk call
High 57°, low 47° · No rain · Gusts to 20-28 mph
Same as the NWS
How this differs from the NWS: No disagreement.
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Saturday
High 57° Low 42°
No rain, gusts to 17 mph
Dry and seasonably cool.
From Alex · Written this evening
National Weather Service
High 58° · Low 43° · Rain chance 4%
Sunny
Saturday. Sunny, with a high near 58.
Saturday Night. Mostly clear, with a low around 43.
The models
6 models · highs 54–58° · lows 39–48° · they agree
Model High Low Rain Gust GFS 57° 48° No rain 18 mph ECMWF 54° 39° No rain 20 mph ECMWF AI 58° 44° No rain — ICON 58° 39° No rain 19 mph GEM 56° 41° No rain 11 mph NBM 58° 45° No rain 16 mph My desk call
High 57°, low 45° · No rain · Gusts to 12-20 mph
Same as the NWS
How this differs from the NWS: No official signal.
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Sunday
High 62° Low 42°
No rain, gusts to 11 mph
High near 62, low near 42. Dry.
Automatic summary
National Weather Service
High 61° · Rain chance 5%
Sunny
Sunday. Sunny, with a high near 61.
The models
6 models · highs 59–64° · lows 39–49° · some spread
Model High Low Rain Gust GFS 60° 49° No rain 16 mph ECMWF 63° 39° No rain 11 mph ECMWF AI 61° 46° No rain — ICON 64° 40° No rain 11 mph GEM 59° 39° No rain 7 mph NBM 62° 45° No rain 8 mph