Keeping an eye on it
Offshore low, prolonged NE wind, coastal flooding Wed-Thu
Coastal flood, NE wind, surf
South Shore Long Island, NYC harbor edges, East End
Wed Oct 21, 12:00 AM to Fri Oct 23, 12:00 PM
Dry and breezy week ahead
From Alex · 8:43 PM
Dry through Saturday. Breezy at the coast Tuesday and Wednesday.
Nothing risky in the next few days. Monday is sunny and cool. Tuesday and Wednesday bring a northeast breeze, strongest on the East End with gusts 40 to 50 mph, and a small chance of minor tidal flooding on the South Shore. I'm not confident about that part because it depends on where a storm offshore sits.
What to watch 1 to watch
Right now
46°
Clear
Wind 0 mph
Republic Airport, Farmingdale, observed 24 min ago
Next 12 hours
- 9 PM47°0% rain
- 10 PM45°0% rain
- 11 PM46°0% rain
- 12 AM43°0% rain
- 1 AM44°0% rain
- 2 AM43°0% rain
- 3 AM45°0% rain
- 4 AM43°0% rain
- 5 AM44°0% rain
- 6 AM43°0% rain
- 7 AM44°0% rain
- 8 AM46°0% rain
The next few days
-
Tonight
High 48° Low 46°
No rain, gusts to 8 mph
Clear and chilly tonight. Some frost inland.
From Alex · Written this evening
National Weather Service
Low 43° · Rain chance 0%
Clear
Tonight. Clear, with a low around 43. Northeast wind around 5 mph.
The models
8 models · highs 45–52° · lows 44–50° · some spread
Model High Low Rain Gust HRRR 47° 45° No rain 12 mph NAM 52° 50° No rain 8 mph GFS 47° 45° No rain 12 mph ECMWF 45° 45° No rain 4 mph ECMWF AI 51° 50° No rain — ICON 48° 46° No rain 5 mph GEM 47° 44° No rain 4 mph NBM 48° 46° No rain 5 mph My desk call
Same as the NWS
-
Tomorrow
High 60° Low 43°
No rain, gusts to 23 mph
Sunny and cool, a light breeze building near the coast.
From Alex · Written this evening
National Weather Service
High 61° · Low 48° · Rain chance 0%
Sunny
Monday. Sunny. High near 61, with temperatures falling to around 59 in the afternoon. Northeast wind 6 to 12 mph.
Monday Night. Partly cloudy. Low around 48, with temperatures rising to around 50 overnight. North wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.
The models
8 models · highs 58–62° · lows 42–48° · they agree
Model High Low Rain Gust HRRR 59° 43° No rain 22 mph NAM 58° 48° No rain 28 mph GFS 59° 43° No rain 22 mph ECMWF 60° 42° No rain 20 mph ECMWF AI 61° 47° No rain — ICON 60° 42° No rain 24 mph GEM 62° 42° No rain 21 mph NBM 61° 45° No rain 18 mph My desk call
High 60°, low 44° · No rain · Gusts to 15-22 mph
Same as the NWS
How this differs from the NWS: Models and NWS both dry.
If it goes wrong: None of note.
-
Tuesday
High 65° Low 50°
No rain, gusts to 37 mph
Dry and breezy from the northeast. Gustiest on the East End.
From Alex · Written this evening
National Weather Service
High 64° · Low 47° · Rain chance 1%
Mostly Cloudy
Tuesday. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 64. North wind around 16 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.
Tuesday Night. Mostly clear, with a low around 47. Northeast wind 13 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.
The models
8 models · highs 60–66° · lows 48–52° · some spread
Model High Low Rain Gust HRRR 63° 49° No rain 40 mph NAM 60° 51° No rain 44 mph GFS 65° 49° No rain 40 mph ECMWF 64° 49° No rain 26 mph ECMWF AI 65° 52° No rain — ICON 66° 48° No rain 30 mph GEM 64° 52° No rain 40 mph NBM 65° 50° No rain 26 mph My desk call
High 63°, low 50° · No rain · Gusts to 25-35 mph
Same as the NWS
-
Wednesday
High 58° Low 48°
No rain, gusts to 29 mph
Dry and breezy. Minor tidal flooding possible on the South Shore.
From Alex · Written this evening
3° warmer than NWS
National Weather Service
High 60° · Low 44° · Rain chance 9%
Mostly Sunny
Wednesday. Mostly sunny, with a high near 60.
Wednesday Night. A slight chance of rain showers after 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 44.
The models
6 models · highs 56–60° · lows 46–52° · some spread
Model High Low Rain Gust GFS 58° 49° No rain 30 mph ECMWF 56° 46° No rain 27 mph ECMWF AI 58° 52° 0.28 in — ICON 59° 48° No rain 34 mph GEM 58° 46° No rain 25 mph NBM 60° 48° No rain 28 mph My desk call
High 58°, low 48° · No rain · Gusts to 25-35 mph
Same as the NWS
How this differs from the NWS: OKX also low confidence on the offshore low.
If it goes wrong: Light showers East End if the offshore low tracks closer.
-
Thursday
High 63° Low 47°
No rain, gusts to 29 mph
Mostly dry and breezy. A stray shower is possible on the East End.
From Alex · Written this evening
National Weather Service
High 64° · Low 47° · Rain chance 15%
Slight Chance Rain Showers then Mostly Sunny
Thursday. A slight chance of rain showers before 8am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 64.
Thursday Night. Mostly clear, with a low around 47.
The models
6 models · highs 59–66° · lows 43–51° · some spread
Model High Low Rain Gust GFS 66° 49° No rain 32 mph ECMWF 63° 43° No rain 28 mph ECMWF AI 62° 51° 0.21 in — ICON 64° 49° No rain 33 mph GEM 59° 47° No rain 21 mph NBM 64° 46° No rain 23 mph My desk call
High 61°, low 48° · Trace of rain · Gusts to 20-30 mph
Same as the NWS